EURUSD,H4
Last week’s non-farm payrolls data showed that the US labor market remains resilient, but also confirmed a continued slowdown in job growth, while also revealing job losses in several sectors of the economy. The USD was widely but briefly bought, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics said non-farm payrolls rose 236k in March, down from an upwardly revised 326k in February but higher than consensus.
Federal Funds rate futures showed lending rates increased somewhat on Friday, but the March payrolls report and other recent statistics have some analysts expressing concern that non-farm payroll growth may only reach 50,000 over the next two months.
Interest rate markets have shifted abruptly in recent weeks, prompting a pullback for the Dollar and helping to lift the Euro-Dollar exchange rate briefly ahead of the Easter holidays.
This week is not only shortened after the Easter weekend, it is also tied to hard-hitting economic data. From Europe, the ECB Account will be of interest given recent events as well as the central bank’s decision to raise interest rates by 50 basis points amidst the banking turmoil.
Technical Analysis
The intraday bias remains neutral for consolidation below the temporary high of 1.0972. Further gains are expected as long as the 1.0787 support and the 200 EMA hold. A move above 1.0972 would continue the 1.0515 rally to retest the 1.1032 peak. A strong break there would resume a bigger uptrend, but a break of 1.0787 would turn the bias back to the downside for the 1.0712 support. RSI declined to the 48 level and MACD is showing divergence which requires downside confirmation below 1.0875 minor support.
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Ady Phangestu
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia
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