Events to Look Out For Next Week – Money Market Multiplier

The week is massive as uncertainty for major central banks actions dominates after the latest data releases back higher for longer stories for most central banks. The weekly agenda includes further speeches from the RBA and BOC and the BOJ rate decision, while the US NFP report will be in the spotlight. US data and events ahead will be also important drivers for the market. Chair Powell’s Monetary Policy Report, Tuesday to the Senate Banking Committee, and Wednesday to the House Financial Services Committee, as well as the jobs report on March 10, will help clarify for the FOMC whether the recent stronger than expected reports were one-off anomalies or not.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Monday – 06 March 2023

Consumer Price Index (CHF, GMT 07:30) – The inflation for February is expected at 0.4% m/m from 0.6% m/m.
Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 15:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Canada Ivey PMI Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country.

Tuesday – 07 March 2023

Retail Sales & Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian Retail Sales and Trade Balance for January are expected to grow to 1.9% m/m (from -4% m/m) and 13,181 mln, respectively.
Trade Balance (CNY, GMT 03:00) – Chinese Trade Balance for February is expected to grow by 80.9 bln from 78 bln.
Event of the Week – Interest Rate Decision & Statement (AUD, GMT 03:30) – In Australia an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate added to pressure on the RBA. Australia unemployment unexpectedly moved higher in January, which has increased pressure on the RBA. Governor Lowe already had to defend the bank’s policy against charges that the RBA is intent on pushing the economy into recession. A sweeping review of the RBA has been started though and will be delivered to the Treasurer by March 31. Hence for the upcoming meeting another 25 bp rate hike is expected from the RBA to reach 3.60%, while more are expected after RBA’s Lowe suggests rates haven’t peaked yet.
Fed Chair Powell Testimony Day 1 (USD, GMT 15:00)
RBA Governor Lowe Speech (AUD, GMT 21:55)

Wednesday – 08 March 2023

Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 10:00) – GDP for Q4 is expected unchanged at 0.1% m/m and headline at 1.9% y/y.
ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – The key private payrolls number is expected to climb to 168K (106k higher than last month’s reading).
Event of the Week – Interest Rate Decision & Statement & Press Conference (CAD, GMT 15:00) – Canada’s economy has also been quite resilient to the aggressive 425 bps in BoC rate hikes reports from March 2022, that included a hefty 100 bp boost. Canada growth is expected to pick up to a 0.3% rate in January, according to StatsCan preliminary read. GDP growth contracted at a -0.1% rate in December, disappointing but not totally unexpected given the BoC’s aggressive tightening. It erased the 0.1% gain in November. Growth was unchanged for Q4, slowing from the 2.3% (was 2.9%) clip in Q3. The gyrations in growth and inflation will make the BoC ponder last month’s pause after it hiked another 25 bps.
Fed Chair Powell Testimony Day 2 (USD, GMT 15:00)
Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50) – GDP for Q4 is expected higher at 0.2% m/m and headline at 0.8% y/y.

Thursday – 09 March 2023

Interest Rate Decision & Statement (JPY, GMT 02:30) – In Japan, BoJ Governor nominee Ueda indicated in his parliamentary hearing in February he would back the central bank’s ultra-accommodative policy for now. Additionally, though Ueda indicated the bank’s accommodative stance would be maintained, there is speculation that the policy stance will be shifted later this year and that has given JPY a lift.
Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 240k February nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 517k in January and 260k in December. A continued tight path for claims in February implies some upside payroll risk. We assume a 15k factory jobs rise after a 19k January increase. We expect the jobless rate to tick up to 3.5% from the 54-year low of 3.4% (3.43%) in January. Hours-worked are assumed to fall -0.3% after a 1.2% January surge, while the workweek falls to 34.5 from 34.7. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.3% after a 0.4% gain in December, while the y/y wage gain should rise to 4.7% from 4.4%. The ensuing strength in wage gains has allowed continued robust y/y increases, though the return of low-paid workers to the workforce is likely restraining wage increases.
Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada’s unemployment is anticipated higher in February to 5.1% from 5.0%.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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