Events to Look Out For Next Week – Money Market Multiplier

Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally.

US Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods, along with Eurozone inflation and PMIs from the US, UK and Europe next week should help to test market prospects from the Central Banks’ next moves. Currently a fear for a technical recession in the Eurozone’s largest economy is seen, though the February bounce in confidence suggests a return to rising output levels. In the EU another 50 bp rate hike from the ECB is anticiated, while in UK the larger than expected drop in the UK inflation numbers boosted speculation that the BoE is getting closer to peak rates. Meanwhile in the US, a 25 bp rate hike on March 22 remains the overwhelming expectation with only small risk for a resumption of another 50 bp boost.

Monday – 27 February 2023

Durable Goods (USD, GMT 11:30) – Durable Goods orders are expected to plunge -4.0% in January with a -10.9% transportation orders drop, after a 5.6% headline bounce in December that included a 16.9% transportation orders jump. Durable orders ex-transportation are pegged to rise 0.2%, after a -0.2% December dip. Defense orders are expected to rise 0.1%, following a -3.4% December drop.

Tuesday – 28 February 2023

Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian Retail Sales for January are expected to grow to 1.2% m/m from -3.9% m/m.
BOJ Gov-Designate Ueda Speaks (JPY, GMT 04:10)
Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The annualized Q4 GDP growth for Canada should show a decline to 1.5% q/q from 2.9% q/q.
CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 15:00) – Consumer Confidence is expected to rise to 108.0 from 107.1 in January, leaving the index just short of the 1-year high of 109.0 in December, versus a 17-month low of 95.7 in July. We expect the present situation index to slip to 150.8 from 150.9, versus a 19-month low of 138.3 in November.

Wednesday – 01 March 2023

Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The annualized Q4 GDP growth for Australia should show a slight boost to 0.7% q/q from 0.6% q/q, while headline is expected at 6.2% y/y from 5.9% y/y.
Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The February Manufacturing PMI in China is expected at 49.8 from 50.1.
Markit PMIs (EUR, GMT 08:55-09:00) – The German Manufacturing PMI for February is expected to stay unchanged at 46.5. The same stands for Eurozone at 48.5.
Markit PMIs (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The February Manufacturing PMI in the UK is expected to remain in contraction at 49.2.
BOE Governor Bailey Speech (GBP, GMT 10:00)
Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM index is expected to tick up to 47.5 from a 3-year low of 47.4, versus an 18-year high of 63.7 in March 2021, an 11-year low of 41.6 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 30.3 in June of 1980.

Thursday – 02 March 2023

Markit PMIs (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Eurozone Composite February PMI is expected unchanged at 52.3 along with Services PMI at 53.
Markit PMIs (EUR, GMT 08:30 – 09:00) – The UK Composite February PMI is expected to slip back to contraction territory at 47.8 from 53, despite the unchanged Services at 53.3.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:45-15:00) – The ISM-NMI index should ease to 54.0 from 55.2, versus a 3-year low of 49.2 in December, versus an all-time high of 68.4 in November of 2021, an 11-year low of 41.8 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 37.8 in November 2008. We’re seeing a 15-month producer sentiment pull-back from robust peaks in November of 2021, with many of the various component categories now in contraction territory. Producers are facing big headwinds from elevated interest rates and recession fears, but have benefited from the need to rebuild inventories following a prolonged period of supply chain disruptions.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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