- The USD Index holds at lows not seen since August & June at 104.50 and significantly below the 200-day MA at 105.40. Weaker PCE inflation, lower JOLTS numbers, but tempered by a miss for Weekly Claims all added to pressure for yields too, the 2/10 yr remains inverted by 71 bps. Stocks finished flat, Asian markets also flat except Nikkei (-1.59%) as JPY soars. All eyes on NFP; Consensus is a headline of 200k, less than 120k-150k and the USD could slip further, over 250-300k could lift the Greenback.
- EUR – broke over key psychological 1.0500 and holds at 5-mth highs at 1.0530 now.
- JPY – collapsed to under 135.00 today and trades at 134.60 from 139.85 on Wednesday, hitting Japanese stocks.
- GBP – Sterling rallied again to breach 1.2300, briefly and post 5-month highs. Trades at 1.2260 now.
- Stocks – Wall Street held on to Wednesday’s gains closing flat – US500 -3.54 (-0.09%) 4076, FUTS trades at 4076 now.
- USOil – Rallied again (4 consecutive days) to breach $83.00 before cooling to $81.25 now. OPEC meet over weekend and into Monday possibly
- Gold – Rallied to and broke the key $1800 and holds at $1802 now.
- BTC – Sentiment woes continue, but a weaker USD means it holds at 17k.
Today – US & Canadian Jobs Reports, EZ Producer Prices, Speakers from ECB’s Lagarde & de Guindos, Fed’s Barkin & Evans.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.52%) rallied again to test 0.6400 today from 0.6300 yesterday and lows on Monday at 0.6150. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 69.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00127, Daily ATR 0.0083.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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